OPEC+ Holds November Oil Targets Steady as Iran War Hits Exports

OPEC+ has agreed in principle to keep oil production targets unchanged for November, three sources close to the talks told Reuters on Sunday, as the US-Israeli war on Iran continues to disrupt Gulf crude exports.

Gulf OPEC+ producers have been pumping well below their official targets because of export disruptions linked to the conflict, Reuters reported. Exports from those producers have fluctuated at roughly 60 to 80 percent of normal levels in recent months, the sources said.

Targets hold as war delays capacity review

The seven core OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman — were due to meet at 1100 GMT on Sunday, Reuters said. A separate Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee was also scheduled to review the market the same day.

OPEC+ has been raising output targets for much of 2026 after years of production cuts, but most of those increases stayed on paper because of the Middle East conflict, according to Reuters.

The war has also delayed the group’s output capacity review, which is needed to set members’ 2027 quotas, industry sources have told Reuters, because estimates of future production potential remain uncertain.

Output still far below prewar levels

OPEC data cited by Reuters showed the seven core members pumped 25 million barrels per day in August, up 630,000 barrels per day from July, yet still about 5 million barrels per day below prewar levels in February.

OPEC+ still has about 2 million barrels per day of output cuts covering most members, Reuters said. Sources have said any further changes to output are unlikely before 2027 until a capacity review is completed.

Iran International also carried the Reuters report on Sunday, underscoring that producers are holding formal targets steady even as physical flows remain constrained by the wider war and shipping risks around the Strait of Hormuz.

War pressure on oil markets

The conflict that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 has repeatedly disrupted energy shipping through Hormuz, a chokepoint for a large share of global oil and liquefied natural gas in peacetime.

Washington continues to enforce a naval blockade aimed at Iranian oil exports, while Tehran has insisted the strait will not fully reopen until the United States meets its conditions. Those diplomatic and military pressures remain the backdrop to OPEC+’s decision to leave November targets unchanged, according to the Reuters account.

Reporting for Reuters was by Ahmad Ghaddar, Olesya Astakhova and Alex Lawler, with writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov.