Middle East Crude Exports Top Pre-War Levels Despite Hormuz Tanker Attacks, Kpler Data Shows
Gulf oil flows rebound past pre-war averages as a security firm warns ships may be sailing into an Iranian "kill box".
3 min read
File photo: An oil tanker takes on crude at Iraq's Al Basrah Oil Terminal in the Persian Gulf, 2005. Photo: Eben Boothby, U.S. Navy, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
Crude oil exports from the Middle East climbed above their pre-war average on four days in the final week of September, according to provisional ship-tracking data from Kpler reported by Reuters on Monday, even as attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz continued.
The rebound comes despite Iran choking shipping through the strait after the US-Israeli war on Iran began on February 28.
What the tracking data shows
According to Kpler, crude exports from the region exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and between September 27 and 29, rising to between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. Before the war, exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February this year.
The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1, Reuters reported. That includes Hormuz and Red Sea transits, terminal exports and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days to September 30.
LNG cargoes leaving Hormuz also hit their highest monthly level since February in September. The data excludes vessels that may have crossed with tracking transponders switched off.
Attacks keep coming
Shipping intelligence firm Marisks said in a report on Saturday that at least seven incidents had been reported in and around the strait. It said the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board.
"All crew members were reported safe and were subsequently evacuated from the vessel," Marisks said. The tanker's owner, Kuwait Oil Tanker Company, did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2, according to Reuters.
A possible 'kill box'
Marisks warned that merchant ships transiting Hormuz face a "heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat" given the recent sharp increase in traffic.
"Current intelligence suggests that the recent pattern of incidents may not necessarily represent deliberate targeting of individually selected merchant vessels," the firm said. "Instead, available information indicates the possibility that Iranian forces are launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area or 'kill box', with weapons potentially acquiring and locking onto available radar signatures within that area."
Why it matters
Before the war, the strait typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day, carrying some 20% of the world's daily crude oil and LNG supply, Reuters reported. Brent crude was quoted at $102.60 a barrel in early Asian trading on Monday, Gulf News reported, citing OilPrice.com.
