Quebec Heads to the Polls as Separatist Parti Quebecois Eyes Return to Power After 12 Years

Voters in Quebec go to the polls on Monday in a provincial election that the separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) is favoured to win, a result that would test Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's message of national unity in the face of pressure from the United States, AFP reported.

Polls in the majority French-speaking province of roughly 9 million people open at 9:30 a.m. local time and close at 8 p.m., with results expected a few hours later, according to AFP. Élections Québec has said preliminary results will be published as counting progresses, with official confirmation usually the next morning.

Final polls point to a PQ win

A final survey by Pallas Data released on Sunday put the PQ, led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, on 29%, ahead of the Quebec Liberal Party on 24%, Éric Duhaime's Conservatives on 20%, the governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) on 15% and Québec solidaire on 11%.

"The PQ will almost certainly form the next government. A minority is the likelier result, but a majority is not out of reach if turnout breaks their way and their campaign organization outperforms the other parties," Pallas chief executive Joseph Angolano said. The Montreal Gazette reported that a Léger poll published on Saturday also pointed to a PQ minority government.

Victory would mark a stunning comeback for a party that won only three seats in 2022, its lowest total since it was founded in 1968, CBC News reported.

The referendum question returns

St-Pierre Plamondon, a 49-year-old lawyer, has promised to hold a referendum on leaving Canada if elected, but not while Donald Trump is US president, effectively ruling one out until at least 2029, according to AFP. In August, he said such a decision "requires conditions that allow for an informed and calm debate".

Experts and polls suggest the PQ's rise is tied to frustration over affordability and declining public services rather than a growing desire to leave Canada, AFP reported. Recent surveys put support for an independent Quebec at roughly 30%.

Quebec has voted twice on independence. Federalists won comfortably in 1980, but in 1995 just 50.58% voted to stay in Canada.

Relations with Ottawa

St-Pierre Plamondon has said ties with Carney's federal government would be defined by a "balance of power".

"There will be dialogue, but the condition for cooperation is that Quebec be respected," he told public broadcaster Radio-Canada, as quoted by AFP.

Carney, asked about the vote on October 1, said his government would work "with the next Quebec premier in a spirit of cooperative federalism", AFP reported.

The Quebec vote comes as voters in oil-rich Alberta prepare for a non-binding vote this month on whether they want independence.