Latvians Head to Polls as Security Fears and Cost of Living Dominate

Latvians went to the polls on Saturday in a parliamentary election dominated by perceived security threats from Russia and a cost-of-living squeeze, Al Jazeera reported, citing AFP and Reuters.

Saturday’s vote is the first electoral test for Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs since he took office in May after his predecessor resigned amid a backlash over stray drone incursions from Ukraine, according to Al Jazeera. About 1.5 million people are eligible to vote in Latvia’s 11th parliamentary election since independence in 1991. Polls opened at 05:00 GMT and were due to close at 17:00 GMT.

United List leads but short of a majority

Kulbergs’ United List was “currently polling at about 20 percent,” Al Jazeera reported, and is expected to retain the premiership. A late-September SKDS/LSM poll reported by Reuters put United List at 14.4 percent — the largest share for the 100-seat Saeima — but said it was “unlikely to secure an outright majority and will need to cobble together a coalition.”

Latvian politics are highly fragmented, with parties rarely seeing above 20 percent and coalitions the norm. Fourteen lists are contesting, but only seven are likely to clear the 5 percent threshold, Al Jazeera and Reuters reported.

Security fears and living costs

Security concerns and cost-of-living issues have dominated the agenda in Latvia, a NATO and European Union member that borders Russia and a significant Russian-speaking minority, Reuters reported from Riga. Rising living costs, low wages, healthcare strains and population decline featured in debates, Al Jazeera reported. Latvia is the poorest Baltic state and now allocates nearly 5 percent of GDP to defence. Results are not expected to change its pro-European and pro-Ukrainian course.

Fragmented field and coalition maths

Most parties are pro-Ukraine; however, the populist Sovereign Power party — which says it wants Ukraine to win but argues money spent supporting Kyiv would be better spent at home — looks likely to become the second-biggest force, with more than 9 percent of the vote, Al Jazeera reported. Most other parties have ruled out a coalition with Sovereign Power.

Latvia First, polling at about 9 percent, could be a potential coalition partner for Kulbergs, Al Jazeera reported. Reuters’ SKDS/LSM figures put Sovereign Power and the Alliance of Young Latvians at 9.4 percent, Latvia First at 9.2 percent and the Progressives at 6.2 percent.

Kulbergs, a former racing driver with a hawkish stance towards Russia and a strong supporter of Ukraine, formed a broad coalition after Evika Silina’s government collapsed over Ukrainian military drones entering Latvias airspace, Reuters reported. The decline of two allies means complicated talks over any future government, Al Jazeera said. About one third of those polled were undecided or did not intend to vote, Reuters reported.